Research
Articles
JENNIFER A. STEEN, Boston College
The Impact of State Legislative Term Limits on the
Supply of Congressional Candidates
Do term limits affect the probability that an incumbent state legislator will run for
the United States Congress? The theory of strategic politicians suggests that by reducing
legislators' opportunity costs of running for higher office, term limits should
push some legislators into congressional campaigns they would have foregone had
a long-term legislative career been an option. To test this hypothesis, I analyze data
from congressional elections held from 1992 through 2004 in the 15 states where
term limits were operative in 2004. I find that sitting state legislators who have hit
the limit of their state legislative service are more likely to run for Congress than
those who are eligible to serve additional terms, whether those terms are limited or
not. However, there is no statistically significant difference between the congressional-
candidacy rates of legislators whose re-election eligibility is limited, but not
exhausted, and legislators whose terms are not limited. By increasing the supply
of experienced challengers, term limits may increase competition in elections for
non-term-limited offices and, consequently, the quality of representation provided
by those elected.
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